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A RUSSIAN TANK HIT BY UKRAINIAN FORCES IN FEBRUARY 2022
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ON THE AFTERNOON OF SEPT. 27,
A BALKANS EXPERT AT THE WHITE HOUSE
GOT A DISTURBING CALL FROM A U.S. INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
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Serbian forces were massing along the length of their country’s border with Kosovo, where NATO has kept an uneasy peace since a bloody war of secession in 1999. Three days earlier, more than two dozen armed Serbs had killed a Kosovar police officer in an attack. Now Servia was deploying heavy weapons and troops. “We were very worried that Servia could be preparing to launch a military invasion,” says one National Security Council (NSC) official.
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¡¡¡¡The question was what to do about it. Months of mounting tension in a remote corner of south-eastern Europe had not received much attention in the media. Diplomatic efforts by the U.K., Italy, and other countries with troops on the ground in Kosovo had failed to calm the situation. In Washington, attention was focused on chaos in Congress; in much of Europe, the trop priority was marshaling continued support for Ukraine. So as part of an effort to pressure Serbia to back down, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan approved a request from his Europe team to declassify elements of the Serbian buildup for public release.
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¡¡ The NSC Intelligence Directorate edited the secret details of the buildup to obscure the sources and methods behind the intelligence. Then it shipped the request to the office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in Northern Virginia via classified email. On Sept. 29, after a two-day scramble to clear the declassification, NSC spokesperson John Kirby convened an unscheduled Zoom call with members of the White House press corps. Kirby gave new information about the Sept. 24, attack on the Kosovar police officer and broke the news of the latest Servian deployment, revealing that it included advanced artillery, tanks, and mechanized infantry units. As coverage spiked, European countries joined the U.S. in applying new diplomatic pressure on the Serbs, and the U.K. announced an additional troop deployment to Kosovo. Within days, Serbian troops were pulling back.
NSC¤Î¾ðÊó¶É¤Ï¡¢¾ðÊ󸻤Ȥ½¤ÎÇظå¤Ë¤¢¤ëÊýË¡¤òÉÔÌÀÎƤˤ¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¡¢¾ðÊó¼ý½¸¤ÎÈëÌ©¤Î¾ÜºÙ¤òÊÔ½¸¤·¤¿¡£ ¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢µ¡Ì©¥á¡¼¥ë¤Ç¥Ð¡¼¥¸¥Ë¥¢ËÌÉô¤Ë¤¢¤ë¹ñ²È¾ðÊóĹ´±»ö̳½ê¡ÊODNI¡Ë¤ËÍ×ÀÁ½ñ¤òÁ÷¤Ã¤¿¡£ µ¡Ì©»ØÄê¤ò²ò½ü¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë2Æü´ÖËÛÁö¤·¤¿¸å¡¢9·î29Æü¡¢NSC¤Î¥¸¥ç¥ó¡¦¥«¡¼¥Ó¡¼ÊóÆ»´±¤Ï¥Û¥ï¥¤¥È¥Ï¥¦¥¹¤Îµ¼ÔÃĤÈͽÄê³°¤Î¥º¡¼¥à¥³¡¼¥ë¤ò³«¤¤¤¿¡£ ¥«¡¼¥Ó¡¼ÊóÆ»´±¤Ï¡¢9·î24Æü¤Î¥³¥½¥Ü·Ù»¡´±½±·â»ö·ï¤Ë´Ø¤¹¤ë¿·¾ðÊó¤òÅÁ¤¨¡¢ºÇ¿·¤Î¥»¥ë¥Ó¥¢·³ÇÛÈ÷¤Î¥Ë¥å¡¼¥¹¤òÅÁ¤¨¡¢¤½¤ÎÃæ¤ËºÇ¿·±Ô¤ÎÂçˤ¡¢Àï¼Ö¡¢µ¡³£²½ÊâʼÉôÂ⤬´Þ¤Þ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¤òÌÀ¤é¤«¤Ë¤·¤¿¡£ ÊóÆ»¤¬µÞÁý¤¹¤ë¤È¡¢¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ½ô¹ñ¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤È¤È¤â¤Ë¥»¥ë¥Ó¥¢¿Í¤Ë¿·¤¿¤Ê³°¸ò°µÎϤò¤«¤±¡¢¥¤¥®¥ê¥¹¤Ï¥³¥½¥Ü¤Ø¤ÎÄɲÃÇÉʼ¤òȯɽ¤·¤¿¡£ ¿ôÆü¤Î¤¦¤Á¤Ë¥»¥ë¥Ó¥¢·³¤ÏűÂष¤¿¡£
¡¡The declassification and release of the Serbian troop movements is one example of a novel White house approach to using intelligence hat has grown out of the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine. Starting in the fall of 2021, as U.S. spies became convinced Russia was preparing to invade, Sullivan worked with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and CIA Director William Burns to “downgrade” classified details of Moscow’s moves. “We were sitting on this troubling information,” says Maher Bitar, NSC coordinator for intelligence and defense policy, “and we needed to get ahead of what the Russian were going to do.”
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More than two years later, the White House has built a broad program to share secrets when it serves strategic goals. About once a week, White House officials see intelligence that they want to make public and get approval from Sullivan to try, more than a dozen current and former White House and national-security officials tell TIME. Intelligence officials at the NSC send requests to the ODNI, which processes them, agreeing on cleared language with those who created the secrets to begin with. “The ultimate decision on whether to greenlight or re-light a given piece of information rests with the professionals in the intelligence community,” Sullivan says.
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The motivation behind the program, the officials say, is that it works. Strategic declassification had denied Russian President Vladimir Putin “false narrative,” Burns said in a speech last summer, “putting him in the uncomfortable and unaccustomed position of being on his back foot.” The effort has expanded beyond Russia. The U.S. has declassified intelligence to blunt Chinese saber-rattling in the Taiwan Strait, to pressure Iran to stop supplying weapons to the Houthis attacking shipping vessels in the Red Sea, and to counter Hamas’ false claims about Israeli strikes. “This is a game changer,” says Kirby. “I hope they never put it back in the bottle.”
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